POKER HAND #40

NOT TO BE OUTDONE: Scott's brother Ryan, also a poker maestro in his own right, chimes in with an EXTREMELY interesting hand.

In a single-table $30+3 buy-in NL tournament on Party Poker last night, the following hand came up in the early stages of the tournament, at the first level with blinds at 10/15. The end result seemed to have justified my play, though I believe that I misplayed the hand (though playing it the 'right' way would have possibly resulted in me going broke).

In late position, I held 7h-6h, a lovely suited connector. Under the gun, a fairly tight player, it seemed, raised the blind to 70. It is nearly impossible to put players online on hands preflop, in limit or no-limit, but I expected that since he had played very, very few pots he could have any hand from J-J to A-A. I had run my stack up to about 1,000 from the initial 800, so I called the 70 with my suited connector, hoping some players behind me jumped in to give my hand some expected value. Instead, it went heads-up to the flop.

The flop came 7d-5h-4h. I'm not sure if I have ever seen a flop that gave my hand so many outs. I held top pair, with a flush and straight possibilities, with another 7 or 6 giving me the best hand. I quickly guessed I had about 20 outs. My opponent made an under-sized bet of 70. My estimation was that he held an overpair on that board, but that $70 bet screamed weakness. My thought process on how to play that hand went as followed:

1) I should move-in on the flop. I may have the best hand here, and if not, I am actually a significant favorite (7-5) over any big overpair. But the problem I assumed with this play was that since I was a favorite to hit my hand, since I did assume he had an overpair, I would actually want to win more from this hand than the about 200 that was in the pot. In cases where I have a flush/straight draw, and
don't want to get action, I would try to move a player off his hand (hoping he might have 9-9 thru J-J in this case and would lay it down). If I were to hit a non-heart straight, I might be able to get some more money. However, if I hit my flush or another 7, I might not get more money from this guy.

2) Make a raise, maybe up to 150-180. This might have induced my opponent to call, and then if I make a straight or flush on the turn or river, he may only put me on top pair and give me action. This play, in normal circumstances where I was on a good draw, would be good if I wanted to take it down right there, yet allow myself to
release my hand if I get played back it. This may have been the best move here.

3) Simply call. Knowing that I had many outs, I thought I could hit my hand on the turn, and if not, I would probably be bet into and would call knowing I still was about even-money to win the hand on the river.

I decided for option 3, though I do believe I probably should have raised the flop. The difficulty with that play, though, is if I raise and he re-raises me all-in, I believe I have to call here, since I'm a favorite. So if I expected that course of action, why not move in? Yet it was early in the tournament, and I wanted to extract more money from this loaded draw.

The turn came a blank, a 2. The person bet 70 again, another weak bet. I decided to try and move-in and make a raise now wouldn't be a prudent play, so I called again. The pot had close to 400 in it now. The turn was another blank, a 10. My opponent now checked; my options here were to make a play at the pot (assuming he had an overpair and might fold) or check. I decided that he might have A-K here, possibly
even a flush draw, and to bet would only force him to fold. Instead of putting myself to a check-raise, I checked behind. He showed the Ac-As for the winning hand.

After this long story, I want to know how others would have played this hand? What should I have done differently?

Ryan, you made the right read and correct to think that you were the favorite, though I would fear the Ah-Kh after that $70 bet. That's one reason I wouldn't move in, because my outs to a flush might be dead.

But there's also another reason. That bet of $70 is so scared, if you moved in on him, he'd probably call. And even though you're the favorite, that's not the best tournament strategy.

The fact that this is an online game makes it so tough. If you knew what kind of player he was, you could properly decide whether he would make a good laydown there. But the fact that people routinely never laydown Aces when they ought to me means he likely would have called your all-in. Although your draw is the favorite there, calling is correct. If you hit his draw, he probably won't be sophisticated enough to lay it down.

Since you're not going to pick up the pot, and you don't have to pay very much to see if you hit the draw, why not just call?

He's the one who made the bad play. Instead of betting $70, he should have moved all his chips in. You would have been forced to a call, and he would have won a huge pot instead of a small one.